Good point there man, I cashed in a few weeks ago at $199 (I know I'm a lucky SOB) But I did so because of the divergence on the MACD chart. And I pushed my way through 2 full Apple Stores in the past week, most people wanted help with new computers or were, like me, just looking and finding it hard to come up with a reason to buy another iPod. Honestly, I would sell if I owned it, and buy back in later. I put a lot of weight on a weekly P&F chart as it focuses on one thing only, long term price action.in the end thats all that matters, price. However, if you take a look at the weekly P&F chart, then AAPL is crashing and it could fall to 54 before breaking its bull trend line.so it could have a long long way to fall.ĪPPL PF Weekly (&pref=G) Its a pretty bad looking chart that was looking well overbought If you check out AAPL in a daily P&F chart it has broken down past the bull trend line (blue) and is consolidating. One of the best technical analysis charts is a P&F chart, it focuses on PRICE ACTION ONLY (no time). Basic chart analysis, like I just did, was unfortunatly much more accurate than my emotions. I have lost most of my money in companies where I "fell in love" with the story. That along with OS dominance is where the danger to iPod/ITMS exists. Hence their rumoured willingness to swap protected AACs for WMAs. It just has to play the media that people actually have. In truth, the player doesn't have to be that good. If people adopt the new Media Player 11, and quietly infect the world with WMA/WVA media, watch out. Say a prayer that Jobs manages to not only deliver must-have sexy devices, but that he makes iTunes a whole lot more impressive for Mac and especially for Windows so that people won't even want to use Media Player. If Vista manages to successfully push people to register their credit cards at Urge, and WMA playback capability becomes a must-have feature, Apple will have a lot of trouble on their hands. I am not saying that MS will do any of the above, but they are sure well positioned to do so. It already seems well on its way to happening with movie downloads. Controlling 90%+ of the world's desktops with XP and soon with Vista, they have an opportunity to push the iPod and iTMS right off the map. Apple leveraged iPods to sell iTMS, and iPods to sell Macs, but Microsoft can use MediaPlayer/Vista/Urge to push its WMA players.
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